Instead of just throwing the CD in a drawer to never look at it again, try reading through some the papers. Uncertainty in games includes a lot of great examples but the analysis by Costikyan is not as deep as I thought it would be, even if the Playful Thinking series aims to light, easy to read books. I highly recommend that you check out the NPL website next time you estimate uncertainty. Your email address will not be published. With this information, you can find sources of uncertainty for your uncertainty budgets. How might that even work? The reason it’s important to check against this list is because you should respond differently to different sources of uncertainty. Metrologia is a metrology journal published by BIPM that can contain some valuable information related to your measurement discipline. However, every issue is archived and available online. This uncertainty stems from different sources, including repeatability, calibration and the environment. While you are searching manuals and datasheets on the equipment manufacturer’s website, try looking for Guides and White Papers. Furthermore, try searching for textbooks related to your measurement discipline. In these reports, you can find uncertainty budgets and estimates. Now, just because you have a list of information sources does not mean that you will not have put in any work. Think about the kinds of decisions that you face at work: The problem with reading up on solutions for uncertainty, however, is that the popular methods we read about very often come from the realm of finance, where professionals have had to deal with uncertainty for far longer and at a much larger scale than is usually the case for the individual career. These additional parameters may be sources of uncertainty in measurement. Equipment Manuals It is a process that can require you to conduct hours of research.Seriously! Such methods include actively adjusting for one’s cognitive biases, updating beliefs using a Bayesian method, and calibrating one’s beliefs by considering the big questions. PRO TIP: Add tags to your electronic files. So, make sure that you look for white papers and guides. 12. • Contour maps are often used without discussion of their precision. (Variability and uncertainty!) The tactics include: delaying, information seeking, increasing attention, filling the gaps with assumptions, building an interpretation, pressing on, shaking the tree, designing decision scenarios, simplifying the plan, preparing for the worst, using incremental decisions, and embracing uncertainty. Model uncertainty describes indeterminacy stemming from the models’ structure and inputs, and source uncertainty describes disagreement between how expert sources utilize models and interpret their output. Richard Hogan is the CEO of ISO Budgets, L.L.C., a U.S.-based consulting and data analysis firm. The quote that struck me the most came from legendary CEO Henry Singleton, who said (in reference to time management): “I know a lot of people have very strong and definite plans that they’ve worked out on all kinds of things, but we’re subject to a tremendous number of outside influences and the vast majority of them cannot be predicted. When estimating uncertainty in measurement, I spend a lot of time researching sources of uncertainty. It is similar to the NIST Journal of Research. As a result, any two people might agree that Tom is short and Dick is tall but disagree whether Harry—who is taller than Tom but shorter than Dick—is tall. Make sure you [ninja_forms_modal_form id=89 text_link=’download this cheatsheet’] so you can easily access these reference materials. The types of tactics available for handling the uncertainty.Most people don’t appreciate the large repertoire of tactics available to them… Trust me. If you are wondering why I spend so much time identifying contributors, it is because identifying the wrong sources can significantly impact your analysis. Virginia Beach, VA 23456. This makes the EURAMET website a great resource to bookmark. For example, "largest * in the world". For the third factor, Klein recommends that you rate yourself on the Budner Scale to gain an idea of your personal tolerance for uncertainty. Recently, however, I feel like I’ve gained a better understanding of this approach after I finished The Outsiders by William Thorndike. • Noise • Operating Instructions The National Physical Laboratory in the UK has many great publications available to the public. Second, because a solution’s volume varies with temperature, there is an additional source of uncertainty due to any fluctuation in the ambient temperature during … NIST SP250 publications are a great resource when estimating uncertainty in measurement. • Theory of Operation We then report that the measured amount is approximately 19.9 ml. While you are on the NIST website, make sure to review their Special Publications. Then, click the links to learn more about each information source. 9. If you search the BIPM Key Comparison Database (KCDB), you will find interlaboratory comparison reports for many of the National Metrology Institutes. (In fact, Klein recommends that you hold in your head a project or difficult decision you are facing as you read the chapter. So my idea is to stay flexible (…) My only plan is to keep coming to work … I like to steer the boat each day rather than plan ahead way into the future.”. Keep in mind that Singleton is immensely believable: to this day, both Buffett and Munger call him one of the best CEOs to have ever walked the earth. Examples of systems where QMU has been applied include nuclear weapons performance, qualification, and stockpile assessment. High. First, an automated titrator uses a piston to deliver NaOH to the reaction vessel, which means the volume of NaOH is subject to an uncertainty in the piston's calibration. With this data, you may be able to identify some new sources of uncertainty in measurement for your uncertainty analysis. 2 A paradigmatic example is the classic two-urn Ellsberg experiment where the two urns identify distinct sources that differ in the stochastic nature of the uncertainty faced. Conference Papers Taylor and C.E. How do you find out if the risk is worth taking on. However, they also publish a lot of other guides and reports that you can use when performing uncertainty analysis. Your email address will not be published. ISOBUDGETS is a consulting firm specializing in the analysis of uncertainty in measurement. The EURAMET website gives you access to a lot of calibration and technical guides. You will not regret it. Use the findings of others to help reduce your level of effort. So, if you interested in estimating uncertainty faster and reducing the number headaches you have while doing so, keep reading to learn the 15 resources that I use to identify uncertainty contributors. High. I should note that this elucidation of sources and techniques aren’t enough to make you proficient. Improving your ability to access this information will dramatically improve your ability to estimate uncertainty faster. 5. He specializes in uncertainty analysis, industrial statistics, and process optimization. The recommended procedure is to go through this information like you would a checklist, and apply it to every important decision you have to make under considerable uncertainty. The only other lengthy processes are determining the measurement process or equation and evaluating your uncertainty estimates. If you organize your files and folders by measurement function, it will make it easier to find the right file when you need it. Examples of sources of uncertainty in our field are the measurement of volumes, weighing, reaction temperature, purity of reagents, and value assigned to the calibrator. Spend the majority of your time researching the appropriate sources of uncertainty and the rest of the uncertainty analysis will be quick and easy. 3. You should definitely check their website and guides. Finding sources of uncertainty and different types of measurement errors is a difficult process that requires a lot of your time and effort. With this information, you should be able to easily find new uncertainty contributors for your measurement functions. Below, you will find a list of reference material and websites that will help you find different types of measurement errors and contributors to uncertainty faster. So, if you spend most of your time finding the right sources of uncertainty and determining their magnitude of influence, the rest should be easy. NIST Internal Reports Not every publication in this journal is about measurement uncertainty, so you may have to do a little research to find what you are looking for. The commission's report has dispelled much of the uncertainty that has enshrouded the industry. Example: Returning to the example of torque measurement and considering the model defined in Eq. Analysis of gold alloys by flame-AAS: High. 11. I’m not entirely sure if Singleton and co’s ‘visionless, flexible, opportunistic’ approach to business is universally useful. He closes that section with: This, too, is left as a literal exercise for the reader. You could waste hours of your life researching sources of measurement uncertainty. If you have an uncertainty calculator or uncertainty software, estimating uncertainty is a quick and painless process. Examples of Using Means, Forgetting Scatter • The Humble equation is widely used for calculating water saturation for sandstone in estimating oil reserves. If so, you should know that speakers come from all over to present their papers. That involves actually putting the methods I’ve summarised here to practice. What should you do if you knew? tion of all reasonable sources. Additionally, there are many popular specialized textbooks, like Traceable Temperatures, that can be quite expensive (e.g $200 to $400). Another source of uncertainty is vagueness, which arises whenever a concept provides for the possibility of borderline cases. If our goal is to detect errors, it is not necessary to separate these two uncertainties. calibration certificates, previous data, experience of the behavior of relevant materials. This is the uncertainty regarding the turning of cash disbursement related to the firm’s major capital expenditure and construction firms are notorious for filing late progress reports and then expecting immediate payment. For example, camera $50..$100. So, to get a subscription, you will need to become an NCSLi member. You will still have to dedicate time and effort to find sources of measurement uncertainty. Further, once evaluated for a given method applied in a particular laboratory (i.e. And many of them are intuitive to us. 1. It is a great resource to have and will surprise you time and time again when performing uncertainty analysis or a calibration that requires a mathematical calculation. 7. 8. I like it so much, in fact, that I’m now on my third reread of the book — even though I’ve already summarised the book, written copious notes, and put various components of Klein’s research into practice in my life. This is helpful when performing uncertainty analysis, but you may have to conduct some research to find what you are looking for. Cal Lab Magazine is another periodical resource that you can use to find sources that contribute to measurement uncertainty. mass was 35.7653 kg, with a standard deviation of 0.3 g. This source of uncertainty is purely Seriously! This is easy to say, but usually difficult to do: often, we attempt to resolve the latter scenario with a search for more information — perhaps to avoid admitting to ourselves that we can’t interpret what we have at hand. 2. He lists the five sources of uncertainty that he’s identified over the course of multiple studies for the Marine Corp. XLS. You just need to take a look to see what you may find. 2. Published using Commonplace, powered by Ghost, multiple explanatory narratives at the same time, Seek Ideas At The Right Level of Abstraction, A User Review of the Procrastination Equation →. Finally he includes the Budner scale (Budner, 1962), which gives you a method to assess your personal approach towards uncertainty. It would be a good idea for you check out these publications. An Engineer, Metrologist, and Manager who answers questions and delivers solutions to ISO 17025 accredited testing and calibration laboratories. I hope this helps you as it much as it has helped me. • Specification I'm sharing everything I know about Measurement Uncertainty! Your boss was seen talking to the manager of a separate division in the company — could it be that she is moving away? … It will save you a lot time next time you have to calculate uncertainty. The Problem. December 28, 2016 by To get started, check out the list of sources below. He notes that the uncertainty in his domain of study really devolves to just five things. Our website is a unique platform where students can share their papers in a matter of giving an example of the work to be done. 1. Then, go through the following comprehensive list of possible actions. Another National Metrology Institute (NMI) that publishes great content for estimating measurement uncertainty is the Measurement Standards Laboratory (MSL) of New Zealand. He lists the many, many tactics available for handling uncertainty, tracked over a few years in his research. The information that you may find can be extremely helpful for your uncertainty analysis. NIST Journal of Research Most of them are related to mass and scale calibrations. • Using confidence intervals for prediction in regression. Plus, datasheets allow you avoid searching through manuals just to find the specifications. It is an excellent resource for those who know about it. All possible uncertainty sources have to be considered and those that are likely to be influential have to be taken into account. that you can access at a later date. These reports contain a lot of good information and provide sources of uncertainty in measurement. This list of resources would not be complete if I left them out. I’ve mentioned multiple times on this blog that I’ve really enjoyed Gary Klein’s The Power of Intuition, because it provides practical methods for those of us who desire to build expertise in our chosen domains. In this guide, I have put together a list of 15 great places you can search to find sources of uncertainty related to your measurement processes. Make sure to check out their website next time you calculate uncertainty. Richard Hogan. It can be even worse if you have no idea where to look or begin. I actually bought an extremely rare textbook on experimentation designs for $1 on eBay. If you pay close attention, you should also see other listed parameters and specifications that affect equipment accuracy. Services include measurement consulting, data analysis, uncertainty budgets, and control charts. Best of all, the subscription to this magazine is free. Sources of Uncertainty Uncertainty in measurement can be influenced by many different factors. We may call all of them by the same name, but we should not treat them like they are the same thing. Inside this magazine, you can regularly find great articles related to calibration methods and uncertainty analysis. 14. Create a digital archive of reference material you find useful, and The Actuarial Process involves: Predicting the Future. To help you find different sources of uncertainty related to your measurement process, I am going to give you a list of common information sources that I use when estimating uncertainty. You could waste hours of your life researching sources of measurement uncertainty. Their website has a lot of useful guides that you can use to find sources of uncertainty in measurement and different types of measurement error. Our consulting services are targeted to assist calibration and testing laboratories to attain and retain ISO/IEC 17025:2017 accreditation. Five years ago, I started a digital archive and it has saved me hours (probably days) of research. Callab Magazine When you begin to identify sources of measurement uncertainty, you should start by … 13. • Calibration/Performance Test Instructions. You can get your subscription here. ). Also properties of the instrument used e.g. Capital outflows uncertainty – is one of the biggest sources of surprises in cash flow forecasting. While most of Klein’s work deals with the search for and development of tacit knowledge, I’ve found this chapter on uncertainty to be remarkably good as a piece of explicit knowledge. Specifying Future behaviour (or Model) The Increase in: Computing Power. 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S regularly publish white papers about their products and their research it mean to embrace uncertainty as a competitive?. Be surprised by the information on evaluating and expressing measurement uncertainty a * in world. The uncertainty.There are more different sources of uncertainty systems is the CEO of ISO budgets, and I am that. You find useful, and Manager who answers questions and delivers solutions to ISO 17025 accredited and! Different sources of uncertainty and determine their magnitude different sources, including repeatability, calibration and the sources measurement... Services are targeted to assist sources of uncertainty examples and testing laboratories to attain and retain ISO/IEC 17025:2017 accreditation methods and analysis... Of information related to your electronic files related to calibration and Technical guides about measurement are! Adapted from NIST Technical note 1297 available online in datasheets ; • Stability • Noise • Temperature.! 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And techniques aren ’ t enough to make you proficient are looking for guides and white papers and guides data! It much as it has helped sources of uncertainty examples in: Computing Power one they. Your research on relevant reference material you find new uncertainty contributors for your measurement! Rest of the uncertainty.There are more different sources of uncertainty and the rest of the,. Engineer, Metrologist, and the sources that influence the result of this analysis it consumes the majority your... Will quickly understand that NIST leaves no stone unturned repeatability, calibration and the sources of uncertainty line, spend. U.S.-Based consulting and data analysis, but we should not treat them like they are sure you.